Trending This Week
Average attempts remained stable last week, going from 110.6/game two weeks ago to 110/game last week. You may note that 110.6 is a little higher than the quoted figure from last week’s writeup, and that’s because I found and corrected an off-by-one error in the windowing for rolling average, and the figures quoted to date have actually been running from Friday to Thursday rather than Monday to Friday as a result. Nothing that changes the overall picture, but still an inaccuracy. Average attempts were stable in total, but there was a shift internally as Brian Henegar turned in several high attempt performances of up to 50, while the median-attempting challengers fell into the mid-30s.
I found the off-by-one bug in the process of looking at Final Jeopardy correctness. Some posters online pointed out that with a 1-for-15 result, it was the worst week of Final Jeopardy in years. What you may not realize, though, is that we’ve actually been trending this way for the last month.
I haven’t included pre-box score data here, as I have some known data consistency issues earlier on around $0 wagers and I’ve already shown off one error today. I’m still fairly confident that the current value of 27.6% is the lowest four-week get rate in the last five and a half years of regular play. The general shape over time is highly volatile though, so a decline this steep may be followed by a rise just as sharp. There’s no overall trend to it.
Whether it continues or not, a time of low FJ success has its own rhythm to it. It amplifies the value of a crushing lead (>150% of the nearest opponent), as proper wagering at that level will allow a leader to win on a Triple Stumper, but not on lead levels below it. Strategic wagering becomes more important. Because leads from 100% to 150% become less safe while leads from 150% to 200% becomes safer, we might see a difference in the turnover in champions. My initial thought was that we should see more turnover, but the similar period in 2022 overlapped with the consecutive streaks by Ryan Long, Eric Ahasic, and Megan Wachspress. So I looked up those streaks, and the general pattern for them is either runaways or prescient wagering. Ryan and Megan in particular notably chose to wager for Triple Stumpers at times, including times Ryan did so from the lead. (Eric simply earned runaways in all but his first and last games.)
You might think about Monday’s game in this light. Crystal Zhao had a lead but not a crushing lead (124%), but with the way Sharon Stone and Dan Bayer interplayed as they also tried to block each other, Crystal ended up with both most valuable possibilities resulting in wins for her: Triple Get and Triple Stumper.
A rough patch of FJ is also going to bring down total winnings, and the slide noted last week has continued — though as also noted last week, it’s still very similar to the long-term baseline.
This Week’s Champions
Crystal Zhao
Average buzz score: $10100 (31st out of 37 champions this period)
Average attempt value: $27292 (33rd)
Average conversion value percent: 36.6% (27th)
Average buzz value percent: 59.4% (15th)
Average accuracy value percent: 60.7% (33rd)
Average DD score: $1200 (27th)
Average DD+: -0.07 (26th)
Average end DJ score: $11300 (33rd)
As noted above, Crystal took a lead into her first Final Jeopardy, and she did it without any DJ Daily Doubles. Despite not having a crush, she was able to win on the Triple Stumper. In her second game, she kept Brian Henegar to a small lead, and if he had not come up with the only correct FJ response of the week, they would have gone to a tiebreak.
Brian Henegar
Average buzz score: $18700 (7th out of 37 champions this period)
Average attempt value: $37097 (8th)
Average conversion value percent: 50.1% (9th)
Average buzz value percent: 66.7% (5th)
Average accuracy value percent: 74.5% (22nd)
Average DD score: $1800 (21st)
Average DD+: +0.07 (22nd)
Average end DJ score: $20500 (9th)
Brian won three games on the strength of high attempts and great buzzer timing. It’s not recorded above, but Brian has more buzzes per game than any other champion in this TOC qualifying period, and more than any in the last period other than Matt Amodio and Amy Schneider. The buzz value is not as high because Brian’s buzzes are more concentrated towards the top of the board, reflecting gameplay more predicated on timing, when it’s working.
On most metrics graphs, Brian shows up in the zone of transition from mid-length streakers to long streakers, and he’ll likely be a tough draw in CWC if he gets placed there.
Rachel Clark
Average buzz score: $9000 (34th out of 37 champions this period)
Average attempt value: $25038 (32nd)
Average conversion value percent: 35.9% (29th)
Average buzz value percent: 42.3% (36th)
Average accuracy value percent: 84.9% (9th)
Average DD score: $3000 (12th)
Average DD+: +0.15 (21st)
Average end DJ score: $12000 (30th)
I’m definitely holding off judgment on Rachel’s metrics for at least another game, as playing against a high volume, high timing opponent like Brian has its effects that can dissipate after that first game. The low attempt value is concerning, but Friday’s game had little action at the bottom of the DJ board, so maybe it was just the board.