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Here are the end of the Spades group, we’ve got three Season 37 champions playing for a TOC spot: 3-regular-game champions Lucy Ricketts and Josh Saak plus the highest-earning 2-regular-game champion in this pool, Sam Stapleton. Each has now played two games in this competition, so we’ve got a little buzz data on how they’re doing. Let’s make some comparisons.
Lucy, Sam, and Josh form a pretty neat Pareto frontier-style pattern on the contestant pool for this competition when looking at attempt value and conversion value %. Josh attempts the most of the three but converts that to scoring the least. Lucy has the best conversion but attempts less. Sam splits the difference. Hanging out on this frontier will naturally get you some good total buzz scores, and these three have done well: Sam led the pool with $17800 average Buz$, Lucy was third with $16600, and Josh ranked seventh with $14300.
Breaking down how the conversion occurs, Lucy boasts the best balance point of high buzz value % (converting attempts to buzzes) with high accuracy value % (converting buzzes into money). Sam’s conversion pattern is very similar but slightly worse. Josh is still in the upper quadrant, but there is a gap.
And then one more step in decomposing the statistics, we can look at the generation of buzz value % as the combination of buzz value generated from timing and buzz value generated from buzzing solo. These are both influenced by opponent play style, so it’s harder to extrapolate a lot just from the graph. However, it’s worth noting that Josh has had timing difficulties in both games so far. Lucy and Sam both had a strong timing quarterfinal and a weak timing semifinal, which both shored up with stronger solo play and accuracy.
Of course, the direct buzzing game isn’t all there is. Lucy and Sam have both been finding Daily Doubles around or a little above their expected rate, and both have been taking large swings at them, sometimes successfully and sometimes not. Josh, on the other hand, hasn’t found a Daily Double yet in this competition and the only player to win a game without doing so. Which he’s done twice. This lack of DDs might change, but Josh does seem less committed to hunting than Sam or Lucy.
Lastly, there’s Final Jeopardy, which is hard to compare directly in small numbers. However, they’re 5 for 6 among them. Sam missed a (barely) Triple Stumper in his semifinal, and Josh has twice used FJ to move from second to first.
Summary: Statistically, this feels like the buzzing game will be a closer competition between Lucy and Sam, and it’s likely Daily Doubles will fall towards them as well. Josh will stay close enough to play spoiler, as he has so far.