With the quarterfinals of the Spades group done, we have nine semifinalists set to play over the next three weekdays. Here’s a look at how each semifinal might break down. Everything here is pulled directly from the summary page for the tournament on the site, so head over there and poke around at it yourself for more. For consistency, I’m only using the statistics from this competition, but their regular play statistics are also available on the site, including box score derived data for some.
Semifinal 1: Sam Stapleton vs Lawrence Long vs Joe Velasco
Sam and Lawrence both ranked very highly in attempt value, at 3rd and 4th in that statistic respectively and above the larger gap between 4th and 5th. Both had runaway victories. Sam’s win was shaped more by timing while Lawrence had an emphasis on solo attempts, but both of those are determined in part by how the opponents play. They’re likely to be close, as attempt counts and values tend to be more predictive very quickly. Joe will likely be playing from behind, but he was able to win from that position in his quarterfinal. The closer Sam and Lawrence are at the end of DJ, the better for him, if he’s within distance.
Semifinal 2: Josh Saak vs Kendra Blanchette vs Dane Reighard
Josh led the field in attempt value, while Kendra and Dane made a middle group in attempting among the semifinalists. But Josh is one of two contestants to make it to the semifinal with a negative timing value. Both he and Kendra had perfect response accuracy on buzzing, but Kendra demonstrated better timing. Dane will also definitely be in the mix on the buzzer. This feels likely to be the most chaotic of the semifinals and each contestant has something going in their favor on paper.
Semifinal 3: Joe Feldmann vs Daniel Nguyen vs Lucy Ricketts
Daniel and Lucy have very opposite game play styles. Daniel attempts a lot and gets some things incorrect. Lucy attempts relatively sparingly but gets everything correct when she does. Both had similar buzz scores as those effects largely canceled out. I wondered if Lucy’s low attempt count was a deliberately conservative strategy with her large early lead (she still converted it to a runaway win). If it was, she might run up more attempts if she needs to. If it was more dependent on the category selections, she may be one of the most variable players in the data, and this game will hinge on the subject matter and Daniel’s accuracy. Joe played well from behind in his quarterfinal, so it’s very possible for him to play spoiler here as well.