Feb 13-17, 2023: A Few Days of Tradition
Mid-February brings champions that don't play in volume
Attempt Watch 2023
Total attempts continued to fall this week, but slower, ending at 104.8 attempts per game for the week compared to 107.8 for the week before and 111.2 for the week before that. This was largely driven by falling attempts by leading attempters, reflecting that this week’s champions are not as volume-driven as at the beginning of the year.
This Week’s Champions
For reference and comparison, 27 contestants have won at least one game in regular play this qualification cycle (Season 39 plus the last game of Season 38).
Mira Heyward
Average buzz score: $12733 (20th out of 27)
Average attempt value: $30151 (21st)
Average conversion value percent: 43.0% (17th)
Average buzz value percent: 65.1% (6th)
Average accuracy value percent: 66.5% (23rd)
Mira brought a 2-game streak into this week. As noted last week, Mira hadn’t taken a lead into FJ yet but hadn’t yet been crushed either, allowing her solo success on Finals bring her both of her wins. In Monday’s game, the FJ success flipped, though, and Mira was the only one to miss, ending her streak.
Mira played a strong buzzing game, ranking sixth out of this cycle’s champions in what percentage of attempted value she was able to actually buzz in on. Given the lower attempt numbers, most of this is through good buzzer timing. She retained this strong timing even in her final game.
Kendra Westerhaus
Average buzz score: $13733 (15th out of 27)
Average attempt value: $28209 (24th)
Average conversion value percent: 48.4% (10th)
Average buzz value percent: 53.9% (18th)
Average accuracy value percent: 90.6% (3rd)
In contrast, Kendra played a strong accuracy game. Though she attempted less than an average contestant this cycle and rang in at about an average rate, she was far more accurate than average, building cash and rarely losing any. She was able to build to a lead on Monday and to a lock-tie on Tuesday, where poor FJ wagering by Blaine Smith assured her victory. She got overwhelmed in both attempts and buzzer timing by Stephen Webb and Jason Carpenter on Wednesday, but maintained her high accuracy in this loss.
It’s also notable that Kendra generally held to a more traditional top-down approach to the board, and this didn’t hurt her in the first two games of the week. In fact, she was able to find five of the six DDs across these two games, converting four and earning an extra $5700. Something about an accuracy approach is that it may not translate to DDs, where you are forced to answer, rather than it being a game of knowing what you know to select when to attempt. Kendra still did well with them, but just didn’t wager very large. In her last game, however, Kendra found no DDs as Stephen bounced around the board.
Stephen Webb
Average buzz score: $17867 (8th out of 27)
Average attempt value: $33770 (17th)
Average conversion value percent: 53.2% (5th)
Average buzz value percent: 60.1% (11th)
Average accuracy value percent: 88.2% (6th)
Stephen’s game places him in a spot where a qualifying streak is possible but not assured — his average buzz score ranks just behind Ray Lalonde (13 wins) but just ahead of Sriram Krishnan (1 win). Another win will likely get him there. Stephen plays well with accuracy and buzzing, but doesn’t have the same volume of attempts other streaking contestants. My guess is that a few categories are largely getting conceded, but he’s making the most of the ones he’s competing in.
After a few days off, Stephen ushered DD hunting back into the game, though he found fewer than expected in both his second and third games.
High School Reunion
I’m not making predictions for this tournament as I really have no basis for doing so. If you really want some, I’d take a look at Andy’s work at thejeopardyfan, where he also notes that the field is pretty wide open and the last time we saw these players was quite a while ago. What I will be looking to get into here is a comparison of gameplay in the quarterfinals versus the 2018 and 2019 Teen Tournaments. As a reminder, the available archive-based data for those is available on J!ometry. There will likely not be a post at the beginning of next week, as it will still be the middle of the quarterfinals and I’ll be traveling for work. (Yes, “traveling for work” means going to Spring Training.)
I think Mira to Kendra was the first time a woman champion lost to another woman since July. The Second Chance and TOCs and repeats in August happened since then, but it’s still several months of regular-season play.