Jeopardy! Masters: Episodes 1 and 2

Breaking down the buzzing game analytics of the first four matches

The Jeopardy! Masters quarterfinals are one-third complete, with all of the contestants having played three games. Victoria is out in the lead with six match points for her two wins, while Yogesh and James have each won one. After the first episode, there was a clear separation in the attempt data between these three and Amy, Matt, and Mattea, but there’s some movement after the second episode that blurs things.

Attempt Value and Conversion Value % for the Masters contestants in their first two matches each. Victoria, Yogesh, and James occupy a space of higher attempting to the right, with varying conversion. Amy, Matt, and Mattea are in a lower attempt space to the left. James and Amy start to overlap in attempt value, although because of James’s better conversion he is in a better position.

I think the takeaway, looking at the changes in attempt value, are less about the contestants themselves and more about the games. Every player in Match 3 (the first match of Episode 2) decreased in attempt value, even if minimally. Every player in Match 4 increased. Teasing out whether this is clue difficulty or a response to competition is not really possible at this point, as only more match play can smooth out the data.

Timing value and solo value for the Masters contestants in their first two matches each. Amy, James, Mattea, and Victoria are mostly consistent in how their conversion works, but Matt and Yogesh have large changes in their timing values between matches.

Breaking down the conversion components into timing and solo, there’s some big movement from match to match. Amy, James, and Mattea each stay roughly in the same region of conversion. Victoria saw her solo value decrease, which is consistent with the play in Match 4: more attempting across players will lead to fewer solo attempts provided accuracy remains high.

Meanwhile, Yogesh and Matt saw large swings in timing value. This is something that I strongly suspect is about the competition. Victoria’s timing is consistent and strong across both of her matches. Yogesh showed strong timing in his first match, but not in his second match, which included Victoria. Matt showed strong timing in his second match, but not in his first match, which included Victoria. At least early in the competition, I am going to work off the hypothesis that the tiers in buzzer timing right now are roughly:

• Victoria

• Matt and Yogesh

• Amy and James

• Mattea

Meanwhile, the stratification of solo work reflects the original stratification in attempts, so the tiering right now is roughly:

• James, Victoria, and Yogesh

• Amy, Matt, and Mattea

James and Matt were competitive with each other in Match 3 by having different conversion strengths, while Victoria has utilized her timing skill to defeat James and Yogesh soundly even when their attempts are similar. Yes, a measure of this is because Victoria has capitalized on Daily Doubles, but she’s able to have control of the board because of these strengths. Sometimes the game is a feedback loop.

Wednesday’s episode will feature Amy, Matt, and Yogesh in Match 5. We should get a good comparison of Yogesh’s and Matt’s timing. If they’re comparable, Yogesh can probably use his solo advantage to build a lead in score on buzzing. If Yogesh’s is better (and he can be very streaky both directions), then it’ll tilt towards a runaway. If Matt’s is better, the game may be more even. It will also depend on how the boards work for Amy, who may fall between the two in attempts and improved in both attempts and timing between her two matches.

Match 6 will feature James, Mattea, and Victoria. I expect Victoria will retain her advantages in attempts and conversion. James may play riskier than in previous matches and attempt more to claw back some of that, and he always has his willingness to wager everything at any time. Mattea will need to better find their rhythm and probably have some selection luck in this match to be competitive.

[Edit: May 7, 2024: The original version of this post stated that Victoria had already defeated James in a match in the last paragraph, but they haven’t yet played each other. Thanks to Matt Carberry for pointing out the error. And shame on me for writing things at 1:00 am.]